Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions  over the Earth

Using Rescued Data and Information

ACRE   partners   are   engaged   in   the   recovery,   imaging   and   digitisation   of   historical   weather   patterns.     This   encompasses   hard   data   recorded   by   weather   professionals   through   to   enthusiastic   amateurs   as they   took   readings   from   their   meteorological   instruments   as   well   as   documentary   material   such   as descriptions   of   the   weather.   Each   form   of   information   has   value   for   those   interested   in   researching historical weather patterns and events. The researchers are a diverse group: . Climate Scientists Climate   scientists   working   on   historical   perspectives   of   weather   generally   have   an   interest   in   outputs from   reanalysis   models.   ACRE   partners   work   to   provide   the   data   that   helps   to   fuel   these   models,   in particular   the   20CR   model   which   attempts   to   re-create   weather   spanning   from   the   recent   past   back   to the   1870’s.   20CR   output   covers   a   wide   range   of   climate   variables   which   can   be   used   to   analyse historical   weather   conditions.   Investigations   using   this   model’s   output   have   covered   topics   as   diverse as: confirming   global   warming   without   using   land   surface   temperature   records   (sometimes   cited   by sceptics as a flawed methodology) (Compo et al., 2013) the US Dust Bowl (Cook et al., 2010) the early twentieth century Arctic warming (Wood and Overland, 2010) historical ENSO events (Giese et al., 2010) decadal Atlantic hurricane variability (Emanuel, 2010) ocean ecology (Baird et al., 2010) highlighting   the   relevance   of   the   stratosphere   for   understanding,   if   not   predicting   anomalous winter seasons in the northern hemisphere (Ouzeau et al., 2011) rainfall as a driver to a late 19th century regional flooding event (Brugge, 1994) The    1851-2011    span    of    the    latest    20CR    version    makes    it    very    useful    for    a    variety    of    climate applications   ranging   from   assessments   of   storm   track   and   extreme   event   variations   to   studies   of drought and decadal variability to all manner of investigations into meteorological history. The   main   forum   for   climate   scientists   interested   in   the   use   of   ACRE-facilitated   historical   weather   data and   20CR   outputs   are   the   annual   ACRE   Workshops   and   the   Region-Specific   Meetings.      Details   of these   and   other   studies   that   used   ACRE-facilitated   20CR   outputs,   are   available   in   the   summaries   of each meeting. Economic, Social and Health Researchers ACRE   data   are   finding   their   way   through   reanalyses   into   supporting   disciplines   beyond   climate   science such as business, agriculture, natural catastrophes and risk analysis: Insurance   company    Swiss   Re    has   announced   that   their   new   European   winter   storm   model will   use   20CR,   making   them   the   first   reinsurance   group   to   see   its   potential   as   a   basis   to   model winter storm risk in Europe Drought   risk   analysis    is   a   topic   being   analysed   by   the   MaRUIS   Project   (Managing   the   Risks, Impacts   and   Uncertainties   of   drought   and   water   Scarcity)   led   by   Oxford   University,   in   which   at least    one    member    of    the    20CR    ensemble    output    will    be    downscaled    to    provide    a    high resolution baseline of UK droughts from 1850-2014. Sugar   harvesting    in   Queensland   is   to   benefit   from   a   project   to   develop   targeted,   seamless weather/climate   forecasting   systems   for   critical   early   season   sugar   harvest   periods   to   be developed using reanalyses outputs. Coffee yield forecasting in Vietnam is to be developed using 20CR outputs Tse   fly    as   a   factor   in   the   reduced   ability   of Africans   to   generate   an   agricultural   surplus   (Alsan, 2014) Wildfire study  estimating thunderstorm activity (Pfeiffer and Kaplan 2012) Dust   storm   history    in Australia   (Pudmenski,   2014)   ( El   Niño-Southern   Oscillation   influence   on the   dust   storm   activity   in Australia:   Can   the   past   provide   an   insight   into   the   future?    PhD   Thesis (In    final    year),    International    Centre    for   Applied    Climate    Sciences,    University    of    Southern Queensland, Australia) Cultural Historians ACRE   is   increasing   its   outreach   and   interactions   by   linking   with   social   and   cultural   studies   of   human history.   It   is   creating   a   cross-disciplinary   community   melding   climate   science   together   with   the   natural sciences,   social   sciences   and   humanities.      20CR   provides   a   long   historical   weather   reconstruction onto   which   the   various   societal,   environmental,   economic   and   political   factors   can   be   layered   and melded together to provide a more holistic assessment of global to regional variability and change: What   does   human   history   teach   us   about   climate   change?   The   Snows   of Yesteryear ,   Narrating Extreme    Weather    Project     will    investigate    the    ways    that    extreme    weather    events    are remembered   and   mythologised   by   the   people   of   Wales.   Using   their   past   experiences,   the project   will   draw   lessons,   both   warning   and   opportunity,   for   how   we   may   be   able   to   cope   with the phenomena resulting from future climate change. Putting   sailors   back   in   their   ships.   The   Shipping   Archives   and   Integrated   Logbooks   of   Ships ( SAILS)    project   linked   structured   data   from   WW1   Royal   Navy   Ship’s   logs   with   Royal   Navy Service   Records. An ACRE   initiative   imaged   the   collection   of   ship   logbooks   from   1914-23.   The climate   data   were   then   digitised,   providing   a   valuable   source   of   historical   marine   observations. However,   these   records   also   have   great   value   to   the   social   and   military   history   community   as they   include   detailed   information   about   the   movement   of   ships,   and   about   ship’s   personnel.   By linking   them   with   Royal   Navy   Service   Records,   the   project   was   able   to   link   sailors   with   the logbooks    of    their    ships    and,    effectively,    ‘put    sailors    back    in    their    ships’.        This    provided enormous   value   for   researchers   of   WW1,   and   was   an   important   demonstration   of   linking   and exposing structured data for interdisciplinary research. How   do   people   react   to   climate   change?   Spaces   of   Experience   and   Horizons   of   Expectation' : Extreme   weather   in   the   UK,   past,   present   and   future :      This   project   uses   historical   records   and oral   history   approaches   to   explore   how   people   have   understood,   been   affected   by   and   have responded   to   climate   variability   and   extreme   events   through   time.   It   explores   how   and   why particular   events   become   inscribed   into   the   cultural   fabric   of   communities   and   how   they   have contributed   to   community   change   in   historical   and   cultural   contexts.      The   main   output   from   the project   will   be   a   public   database   of   extreme   weather   events   in   the   UK,   dating   back   to   circa 1700   (ACRE-facilitated).   Other   outputs   will   include   educational   resources,   a   touring   public exhibition and a variety of published materials and conference presentations. A    framework/blueprint    for    such    a    melding    of    climate    science    with    the    social    sciences, humanities and the arts is detailed in: Allan,   R.,   Endfield,   G.,   Damodaran,   V., Adamson   G.,   Hannaford,   M.,   Carroll,   F.,   Macdonald,   N., Groom,   N.,   Jones,   J.,   Williamson,   F.,   Hendy,   E.,   Holper,   P., Arroya,   P.,   Hughes,   L.,   Bickers,   R.     and      Bliuc,   A-M.,   2015:      Towards   integrated   historical   climate   research:   the   example   of   ACRE (Atmospheric     Circulation     Reconstructions     over     the     Earth).          WIREs     Climate     Change (Accepted) .
“…data recorded by weather professionals through to enthusiastic amateurs.”
“Tse fly as a factor in the reduced ability of Africans to generate an agricultural surplus.”
“ACRE is creating a cross- disciplinary community, melding climate science together with the natural sciences, …”
LINKS Applications   of   long   historical   reanalyses    –   a   report   on   t he   use   of   rescued   weather   data   is   used   to produce reanalyses of historical weather patterns (page 39 onwards especially applies) Data Rescue Before It’s Too Late” - video